Irene Kasalu tops Kitui with 41%, Wavinya Ndeti dominates Machakos with 52%, while Mutula Kilonzo leads a tight contest in Makueni.
A September 2026 county governor electability tracking report attributed to Swiss Poll International has placed Hon. Irene Kasalu ahead in the Kitui gubernatorial race, signalling a potentially competitive political contest ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The report, covering the three Lower Eastern counties of Kitui, Machakos and Makueni, projects Kasalu as the leading candidate in Kitui with 41% support, followed by former MP Makali Mulu at 29%.
The remaining 30% is categorised as supporters of other candidates and undecided voters, suggesting that a significant portion of the electorate remains politically available.
KASALU OPENS 12-POINT LEAD IN KITUI
According to the figures presented in the report, Kasalu enjoys a 12-percentage-point advantage over Makali Mulu.
The numbers suggest that Kasalu has established an early lead in the gubernatorial contest, although the substantial proportion of voters outside the two leading candidates indicates that the race remains open.
With 30% of respondents classified under other candidates and undecided voters, the eventual outcome could depend heavily on political alliances, grassroots mobilisation, candidate popularity and the ability to attract voters who have yet to settle on their preferred candidate.
For Kasalu, the reported lead represents a potentially encouraging position as political activity intensifies across Kitui’s eight constituencies.
However, maintaining that advantage would require sustained engagement with voters and an effective countywide campaign.
WAVINYA NDETI COMMANDS MACHakos WITH 52%
In neighbouring Machakos County, Governor Wavinya Ndeti emerges as the strongest-performing candidate among the three county leaders featured in the report.
Ndeti commands 52% support, placing her 30 percentage points ahead of former State House Chief of Staff Nzioka Waita, who registers 22%.
The remaining 27% is attributed to other candidates and undecided voters.
The figures suggest that Ndeti enters the approaching election period from a comparatively strong position, with her reported support exceeding the halfway mark.
Her substantial lead could present a significant challenge to potential competitors seeking to unseat her in 2027.
MAKUENI GOVERNOR FACES TIGHTER CONTEST
Makueni County presents a different political picture.
Governor Mutula Kilonzo Jr. leads with 39%, closely followed by Professor Philip Kaloki at 33%.
The six-percentage-point gap represents the narrowest margin between the leading candidates across the three counties.
With another 28% classified as supporting other candidates or remaining undecided, Makueni could witness a particularly competitive gubernatorial race.
The figures suggest that both leading contenders have considerable political work ahead of them as they seek to consolidate their support.
KITUI EMERGES AS A KEY POLITICAL BATTLEGROUND
The reported findings place Kitui among the counties worth watching as the 2027 gubernatorial contests begin to take shape.
Kasalu’s 41% places her ahead of the other candidates identified in the Kitui results, but the 30% attributed to other candidates and undecided voters remains an important factor.
Political observers will be watching whether she can consolidate her reported advantage while expanding her appeal across the county.
Makali Mulu, meanwhile, would need to close the 12-point gap and attract additional support to challenge the projected frontrunner.
The report also raises questions about how other potential candidates, party nominations and emerging political alliances could influence the final contest.
THE ROAD TO 2027
Taken together, the figures paint three different political scenarios across Lower Eastern Kenya.
In Machakos, Wavinya Ndeti appears to enjoy a commanding lead. In Kitui, Irene Kasalu holds a notable advantage over her nearest listed competitor. In Makueni, Mutula Kilonzo faces a considerably tighter contest against Philip Kaloki.
The central question is whether these reported early leads will translate into electoral victories when voters head to the ballot in 2027.
For now, the September figures place Kasalu, Ndeti and Kilonzo at the forefront of their respective gubernatorial races.
