During his final public engagement before his death on October 15, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, emphasized that there are no arrangements between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) regarding the 2027 general elections.

Political pundits warn that any move to expel key figures such as Babu Owino, John Mbadi, Winnie Odinga, Ruth Odinga, James Orengo, Senator Moses Kajwang, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Caleb Kositany could drastically weaken ODM’s grassroots strength.

Orengo has repeatedly stressed that “there is no ODM without the people,” underlining the party’s reliance on its supporters.Within ODM, a broad-based faction reportedly led by Oburu Odinga, Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, Joho, CS Fred Matiang’i, Governor Fernandes Barasa, and Narok Senator Oledama Ole Kina are said to be supportive of President Ruto’s re-election.

Meanwhile, the faction led by Sifuna and Winnie Odinga continues to hold significant sway in their respective regions, and their potential exit could reshape voting dynamics in Nyanza, Western, and coastal counties.

Analysts note that a fracture within ODM could have implications beyond the party itself. “If this faction breaks away, it will not only dent ODM’s strength but could also impact President Ruto’s strategy for 2027,” one political analyst said, highlighting the influence of these leaders in mobilizing voters.Raila’s statement at his final public engagement sought to reassure ODM supporters that the party remains independent and committed to its grassroots, even as tensions simmer and influential figures play a decisive role.

The coming months are expected to be critical for ODM’s cohesion and the broader opposition’s positioning ahead of the 2027 elections.