Was Raila Odinga’s 2022 Loss an Inside Job?

There is a Kiswahili proverb that says kikulacho ki nguoni mwako(what eats you comes from within). If there is one hard lesson from the 2022 presidential election, it is that Raila Odinga did not lose because of external forces alone; he was undone largely by failures within his own strongholds.

Take Mombasa County, long regarded as an ODM bastion. In 2022, the county had 642,362 registered voters, yet only 277,301 showed up to vote. That means 365,061 voters stayed away. These are not numbers that can be blamed on rigging or state machinery,they point directly to poor mobilisation.

Even more revealing is the vote split. In Mombasa, Raila Odinga garnered 161,015 votes, while William Ruto walked away with 113,700 votes. In what should have been a fortress, Ruto managed almost a 50/50 share.

This raises a painful question, how does an opponent harvest that many votes in your backyard when the political leadership on the ground was supposed to have total control?

The same troubling pattern played out in Luo Nyanza, Raila Odinga’s undisputed home turf.Kisumu County: 607,496 registered voters, only 431,003 voted Siaya County: 533,602 registered voters, only 376,354 votedHoma Bay County: 551,111 registered voters, only 404,112 votedMigori County: 469,053 registered voters, only 347,773 voted Out of a possible 2,161,262 registered voters in these four counties, only 1,559,242 turned out. That leaves a staggering 602,020 voters missing.Add Mombasa to the equation, and in just five ODM strongholds, a total of 967,081 voters did not vote. Nearly one million votes simply vanished not because they were stolen, but because they were never cast.

Yet, some individuals like Junet expected former President Uhuru Kenyatta to perform political miracles and magically deliver the presidency or rig in Raila.

Instead of doing the hard work of voter mobilisation, they donned army fatigue, danced to Ali Kiba’s songs, staged roadshows, and mistook theatrics for strategy.

Elections are not won through vibes, fashion, or celebrity appearances. They are won through turnout, discipline, and relentless grassroots work. Delivering votes is the responsibility of regional political leaders, not retired presidents.Contrast this with Ukambani, where despite the humiliation and internal frustrations within Azimio, people still turned out in large numbers to vote.

The commitment to the ballot was there, even when morale was low.The truth is uncomfortable but necessary: Raila Odinga did not lose because Kenyans rejected him outright. He lost because his strongest regions failed to rise to the occasion. The enemy was not outside it was within.And until that truth is accepted, history will keep repeating itself.